Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 217 | 317 | 110 | 644 |
| TBL | 06 | 214 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:47STLDmitrij JaskinPPAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:03TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:15STLAlexander SteenAssists: David Backes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 14:11STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 15:23STLPaul StastnyAssists: Patrik Berglund, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–1
- P2 17:28TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 6:31TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 18:55STLVladimir TarasenkoENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.62 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:22TBLMark Barberio: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P1 8:41TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:08STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:20TBLBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P2 7:48STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie12:06
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin11:09
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:18
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves8:39
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Gunnarsson15:48
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Butler – Pietrangelo17:20
xG 0.95–0.56 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
- Jackman – Cole11:33
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Namestnikov3:56
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos6:17
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin4:11
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Drouin3:40
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Hedman2:00
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr5:19
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Witkowski – Hedman6:30
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).