Thu, Feb 12, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 24 | 18 | 318 |
| LAK | 111 | 119 | 315 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:09CGYDavid JonesPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 3:41CGYMason RaymondAssists: Matt Stajan, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 19:44LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 0:59LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 6:44LAKJordan NolanGWGAssists: Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 8:18LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Dwight King, Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 12:59CGYMason RaymondAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:26CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:26LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:36LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:24LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41LAKJonathan Quick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:04CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:39CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Glencross – Raymond11:30
xG 1.04–1.08 (49%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Byron – Colborne – Bollig4:47
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:10
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 7–16goals 0–3
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma11:47
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Diaz10:24
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:55
xG 0.41–0.87 (32%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Wideman – Russell16:20
xG 0.87–1.61 (35%)attempts 9–37goals 1–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli11:43
xG 1.47–0.85 (63%)attempts 27–11goals 4–1
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis10:52
xG 0.71–0.13 (85%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown11:18
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore3:17
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin13:53
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – McNabb4:16
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty16:13
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).