Fri, Feb 13, 2015·United Center, Chicago
New Jersey Devils 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 09 | 09 | 126 |
| CHI | 08 | 010 | 317 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:30NJDPeter HarroldAssists: Scott Gomez, Jon Merrill · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 1:27CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:10CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 19:16CHIKris VersteegENAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:14CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:22NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:14NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:56NJDMichael Ryder: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:43NJDEric Gelinas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique8:46
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Jagr – Ruutu – Cammalleri8:24
xG 0.09–0.19 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Josefson6:28
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Tootoo – Zajac11:47
xG 0.49–0.77 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Merrill4:22
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson15:54
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Harrold – Gelinas7:17
xG 0.05–0.27 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad12:06
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane7:57
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger2:32
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Sharp – Kane2:26
xG 0.01–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook5:45
xG 0.99–0.17 (86%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Cumiskey11:02
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson17:33
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).