Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 012 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 129 |
| MTL | 18 | 013 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Richard Panik, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:00MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 4. TOR Mike Santorelli scored
- 5. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 6. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:35TORDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:35TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:35MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:46MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:59MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:37TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:01MTLNathan Beaulieu: Instigator2 min
- P1 18:01MTLNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:01MTLNathan Beaulieu: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:01TORDavid Clarkson: Interference5 min
- P1 18:01TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:01TORDavid Clarkson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:35TORDavid Booth: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:35MTLChristian Thomas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:55TORRichard Panik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:07MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holland won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Winnik – Kadri – Panik10:05
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:42
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland6:57
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Rielly13:48
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Franson – Gardiner12:43
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Robidas – Holzer8:56
xG 0.02–0.97 (2%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher4:07
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:48
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – de la Rose5:58
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise5:35
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:16
xG 1.15–0.25 (82%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Weaver – Emelin11:39
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Beaulieu4:41
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).