Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 216 | 110 | 06 | 1 | 538 |
| DET | 114 | 26 | 17 | 02 | 0 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:54DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:00DETDarren HelmPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:55DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Darren Helm, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 7:04WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Tyler Myers, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–3
- P2 9:48WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–3
- P3 4:38WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 13:27DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brendan Smith, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 4. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 5. WPG Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 6. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 7. WPG Drew Stafford scored
- 8. DET Stephen Weiss stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:16WPGBlake Wheeler: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P2 1:44WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15DETAlexey Marchenko: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:03WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:40DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:59DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:39WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:50DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele5:51
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Ladd – Stafford – Little5:49
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:55
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele7:10
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot11:29
xG 0.86–0.28 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers15:08
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien3:23
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:40
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist12:54
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Weiss – Miller – Andersson4:35
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Jurco – Glendening7:53
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko11:43
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:19
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith2:06
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).