Sun, Feb 15, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 110 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 233 |
| FLA | 07 | 011 | 121 | 02 | 1 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:48STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 18:47FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 4. FLA Brad Boyes scored
- 5. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 6. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 7. STL Dmitrij Jaskin stopped
- 8. FLA Jimmy Hayes stopped
- 9. STL Jori Lehtera scored
- 10. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:19STLT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 13:58STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P2 13:58STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58FLAShawn Thornton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:47FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:47STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:33STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie13:28
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:19
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves8:19
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin9:34
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole13:12
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Gunnarsson17:11
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Butler – Pietrangelo18:50
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad11:00
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky6:59
xG 0.37–0.42 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:52
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bolland13:05
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad19:42
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Petrovic11:31
xG 0.46–0.64 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Gudbranson17:56
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).