Sun, Feb 15, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 29 | 17 | 528 |
| ANA | 214 | 110 | 09 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 1:22WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 5:33ANACorey PerryAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 10:26WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 3:27WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 9:04WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 12:13ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 9:42WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:54WSHMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:39ANAKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:58WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:30ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:57WSHAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:46WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P3 3:37ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:29ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:20
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 3–1
- Laich – Beagle – Latta8:21
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Johansson11:20
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Brouwer – Kuznetsov8:23
xG 0.10–0.68 (13%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Green2:24
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen10:17
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Alzner13:58
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly8:30
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell5:51
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri3:07
xG 0.01–0.01 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Maroon – Palmieri4:44
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm10:01
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stoner – Lovejoy7:22
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Stoner – Vatanen2:34
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).