Mon, Feb 16, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 26 | 06 | 27 | 03 | 0 | 422 |
| WPG | 116 | 113 | 213 | 04 | 1 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.61 xG0–1
- P1 13:49EDMNail YakupovAssists: Derek Roy, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 15:19EDMAnton LanderPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 8:16WPGBryan LittleAssists: Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:08EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jeff Petry, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 3:30WPGTyler MyersAssists: Toby Enstrom, Chris Thorburn · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 15:14EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Iiro Pakarinen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 15:56WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 2. EDM Nail Yakupov stopped
- 3. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 4. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 6. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:27EDMKeith Aulie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:45EDMKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P1 14:21WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:09EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:43WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:03WPGMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:25WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Gordon – Gazdic – Fraser2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Hamilton – Yakupov13:53
xG 0.56–0.83 (40%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
- Purcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins15:32
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
- Pouliot – Lander – Pakarinen9:42
xG 0.18–0.73 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Aulie13:18
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Schultz – Klefbom14:57
xG 0.22–0.86 (21%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry16:30
xG 0.16–0.92 (15%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little8:55
xG 0.73–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Frolik – Scheifele3:28
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Stafford – Little5:57
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Lowry – Scheifele3:41
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot16:32
xG 1.04–0.49 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Stuart – Trouba13:07
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers17:00
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).