Mon, Feb 16, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 19 | 07 | 03 | 327 |
| CGY | 07 | 18 | 210 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:27BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Dougie Hamilton, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 0:50BOSTorey KrugAssists: Reilly Smith, Kevan Miller · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 6:52CGYDavid JonesAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 3:22CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 14:51CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 4:58CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:03BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P2 12:05CGYJiri Hudler: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:05BOSDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:42BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Soderberg – Pastrnak12:24
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand12:06
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Krejci – Lucic – Smith13:08
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham6:40
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug9:10
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton18:04
xG 0.83–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski10:59
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Byron – Colborne4:49
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Hudler – Byron – Monahan3:32
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma13:51
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Glencross – Raymond – Jooris11:23
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:36
xG 0.86–0.63 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Engelland – Diaz8:44
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell21:03
xG 0.59–1.00 (37%)attempts 13–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).