Mon, Feb 16, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 09 | 15 | 223 |
| LAK | 07 | 112 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11TBLNikita NesterovAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 7:04LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Trevor Lewis, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 3:36LAKJordan NolanAssists: Dwight King, Nicholas Shore · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 13:59LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:23TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:03LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:01TBLNikita Nesterov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:19TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 19:45LAKMarian Gaborik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:39TBLNikita Nesterov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Connolly – Paquette8:43
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:40
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin5:34
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:51
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov10:32
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Sustr2:06
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr2:13
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown9:32
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli7:48
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis10:46
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore7:18
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty16:19
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Doughty – McNabb3:59
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:29
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).