Tue, Feb 17, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 1, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 012 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 125 |
| NJD | 19 | 09 | 013 | 04 | 2 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 0:27BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NJD Scott Gomez scored
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 3. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:19BUFBrian Gionta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32NJDJordin Tootoo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:34BUFZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:26NJDMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:44BUFAndre Benoit: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:06NJDPatrik Elias: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:33BUFZach Bogosian: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- OT 4:44BUFChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Hodgson – Larsson4:27
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons11:45
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell10:36
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Foligno – Deslauriers2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Bogosian16:03
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Bogosian2:24
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber15:04
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Ruutu11:52
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique9:04
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac12:56
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Gionta – Josefson10:09
xG 0.00–0.21 (1%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson17:53
xG 1.06–0.53 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Harrold – Gelinas11:49
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill13:25
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).