Tue, Feb 17, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 010 | 212 | 333 |
| PIT | 07 | 115 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Joel Ward, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:35PITSteve DownieAssists: Craig Adams, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 15:47WSHJoel WardPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 19:48WSHJohn CarlsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 16:07PITBeau Bennett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:07WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:39PITBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:28PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:28WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:21WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:58PITMaxim Lapierre: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:58WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:58PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:47WSHBrooks Orpik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:47PITBlake Comeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:13PITCraig Adams: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:13WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:13PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:13PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:04PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:15PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:53WSHBrooks Laich: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr8:28
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:45
xG 0.27–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson4:34
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:47
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hillen10:26
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson15:12
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:43
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Lapierre – Downie4:02
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Hornqvist10:58
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron11:31
xG 0.27–0.46 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett9:55
xG 0.14–0.88 (14%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Pouliot5:33
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang8:33
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot5:11
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).