Tue, Feb 17, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 29 | 01 | 317 |
| TOR | 16 | 07 | 116 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:14FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:42FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dave Bolland · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 13:48FLAJimmy HayesGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:10TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:06FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50TORPetter Granberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:23TORDavid Booth: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:44TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:44FLAShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:52FLADave Bolland: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Bolland9:09
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad9:18
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky9:02
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:15
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:15
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Gudbranson15:29
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Petrovic12:29
xG 0.04–0.17 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:51
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Clarkson – Komarov9:14
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Winnik – Kadri – Panik11:33
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Booth – Holland – Kozun6:33
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Gardiner14:02
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Robidas – Granberg7:44
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly16:12
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).