Tue, Feb 17, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 117 | 015 | 011 | 143 |
| NSH | 215 | 313 | 09 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Melker Karlsson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:42NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:02NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.43 xG1–2
- P2 0:53NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–3
- P2 1:43NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 10:31NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:33NSHMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:21SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P3 5:04NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:54SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto12:42
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Kennedy – Sheppard – Goodrow11:15
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Wingels – Hertl – Tierney9:08
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:27
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic15:10
xG 0.80–0.46 (63%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Hannan – Irwin12:46
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon15:07
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Smith8:35
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Beck – Jarnkrok – Forsberg10:58
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque10:20
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Wilson12:58
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones5:05
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Jones12:45
xG 0.55–0.61 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ekholm13:45
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).