Wed, Feb 18, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 117 | 114 | 244 |
| OTT | 014 | 215 | 210 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:26OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 11:34MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 18:13OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 9:27OTTMark StonePPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 14:25MTLNathan BeaulieuAssists: P.K. Subban, Michael Bournival · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 18:29OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P2 9:13MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:55MTLJacob de la Rose: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – de la Rose9:09
xG 1.47–0.30 (83%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:34
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Eller – Galchenyuk3:23
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher4:37
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban12:23
xG 1.87–0.89 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Subban – Beaulieu9:11
xG 0.77–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu7:07
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar12:15
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Michalek – Turris – Stone12:46
xG 1.19–1.42 (46%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad9:49
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Prince6:13
xG 0.09–1.24 (7%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson19:00
xG 1.21–1.16 (51%)attempts 29–18goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci13:50
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
- Gryba – Borowiecki11:27
xG 0.46–1.61 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).