Wed, Feb 18, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 18 | 111 | 03 | 2 | 328 |
| CHI | 017 | 18 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:10DETTomas TatarAssists: Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:49CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 17:54DETDarren HelmAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:37CHIKris VersteegAssists: Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 5. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 6. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:15CHIBryan Bickell: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:11DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:26DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:29DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:51
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Sheahan – Glendening4:34
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Miller – Andersson3:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Pulkkinen13:51
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:00
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Marchenko13:36
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson17:03
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Shaw – Hartman6:48
xG 0.36–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Smith – Kruger7:39
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:53
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad12:34
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson4:01
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Cumiskey5:27
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson17:04
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).