Wed, Feb 18, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 07 | 010 | 11 | 329 |
| CGY | 19 | 014 | 112 | 02 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40MINJustin FontaineAssists: Thomas Vanek, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:36MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jonas Brodin, Devan Dubnyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 17:08CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Dennis Wideman, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 10:14CGYLance BoumaAssists: Dennis Wideman, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:50MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:26CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:08MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22MINJason Pominville: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:31MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:08
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Parise – Schroeder – Granlund12:42
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Koivu – Pominville – Niederreiter11:25
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Coyle2:07
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser6:51
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba9:07
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Prosser – Dumba2:03
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Bouma12:17
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:19
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Glencross – Colborne – Jooris2:45
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Glencross – Raymond – Jooris10:26
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:09
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell20:14
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 21–25goals 2–0
- Engelland – Diaz7:24
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).