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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 18, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Boston Bruins 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.

EDM winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS11521109060341
EDM2151609001430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:29EDMNail YakupovAssists: Derek Roy, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:40BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:00EDMTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:17BOSReilly SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
  6. P2 15:52BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Torey Krug stopped
  2. 2. EDM Derek Roy stopped
  3. 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  4. 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
  5. 5. BOS Reilly Smith stopped
  6. 6. EDM Teddy Purcell stopped
  7. 7. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  8. 8. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
  9. 9. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
  10. 10. EDM Nail Yakupov stopped
  11. 11. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
  12. 12. EDM Matt Fraser stopped
  13. 13. BOS David Krejci stopped
  14. 14. EDM Benoit Pouliot stopped
  15. 15. BOS Carl Soderberg stopped
  16. 16. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
  17. 17. BOS Milan Lucic stopped
  18. 18. EDM Iiro Pakarinen stopped
  19. 19. BOS Dougie Hamilton stopped
  20. 20. EDM Justin Schultz stopped
  21. 21. BOS Chris Kelly stopped
  22. 22. EDM Ryan Hamilton stopped
  23. 23. BOS Zdeno Chara stopped
  24. 24. EDM Martin Marincin scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:16EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:16BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:04BOSDaniel Paille: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:09EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:03BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P3 12:05BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 14:55BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
46% to win54% to win
← BOS attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Lander
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSEDM
41Shots on goal30
3.7Expected goals2.1
74Shot attempts58
30Faceoffs won38
1Power plays4
13Penalty minutes7
23Hits26
19Blocked shots16
5Giveaways12
3Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith7:53

    xG 0.90–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0

  2. Krejci – Lucic – Pastrnak7:34

    xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

  3. Eriksson – Krejci – Lucic3:12

    xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  4. Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand4:16

    xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSeidenberg – Bartkowski15:49

    xG 1.02–0.35 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0

  2. Chara – Hamilton15:18

    xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0

  3. Seidenberg – Krug2:47

    xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. Purcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:12

    xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0

  2. Pouliot – Fraser – Pakarinen4:13

    xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  3. Pouliot – Lander – Pakarinen5:29

    xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  4. Hendricks – Gordon – Fraser6:50

    xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestFayne – Marincin12:00

    xG 0.60–0.26 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0

  2. Schultz – Marincin4:32

    xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Ference – Petry8:21

    xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.1 xGBOS 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #287 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.71 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.

EDM winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).