Wed, Feb 18, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 420 | 04 | 432 |
| ANA | 17 | 05 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 4:31TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Brian Boyle, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:55TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 18:05TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Anton Stralman, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 19:39TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:51ANARene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:42TBLMark Barberio: Holding2 min
- P3 6:00ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11ANAPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:34TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Brown – Drouin10:21
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos12:47
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:50
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette11:51
xG 0.21–0.97 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Barberio14:30
xG 1.04–0.32 (77%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Garrison – Nesterov14:08
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Barberio – Sustr2:21
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:46
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Palmieri – Rakell11:23
xG 1.01–0.60 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Thompson – Smith-Pelly – Etem6:51
xG 0.08–0.29 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Bourque12:23
xG 0.48–0.82 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Lovejoy5:10
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Stoner – Manson8:28
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Stoner – Lovejoy8:51
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).