Thu, Feb 19, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Nashville Predators 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 117 | 18 | 07 | 232 |
| NYI | 315 | 014 | 211 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00NYIBrian StraitAssists: Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:10NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Nick Leddy, Michael Grabner · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 18:21NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P1 19:42NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 16:38NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:02NYINick LeddyAssists: Colin McDonald, Matt Martin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 8:41NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:14NSHVictor Bartley: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:23NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:41NYILubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:09NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P3 3:56NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33NSHJames Neal: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:33NSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:46NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Smith3:20
xG 0.66–0.25 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Forsberg6:59
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Neal – Wilson11:11
xG 0.86–0.89 (49%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
- Cullen – Beck – Jarnkrok5:49
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones6:55
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ekholm7:52
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Bitetto – Jones8:27
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:16
xG 0.91–0.70 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Strome2:24
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Strome3:12
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- McDonald – Martin – Nelson7:36
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:24
xG 1.23–0.78 (61%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:02
xG 1.12–0.81 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Strait – Hamonic14:56
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).