Thu, Feb 19, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 08 | 111 | 230 |
| PIT | 07 | 113 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:43CBJScott HartnellAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 8:58PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Paul Martin, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 17:43CBJBrandon DubinskySHGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:03PITDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:16PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P2 11:38CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:38PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10PITSidney Crosby: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:10CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:34CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:34PITBeau Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:56PITMaxim Lapierre: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:10CBJKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anisimov – Dano8:39
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp5:35
xG 0.05–0.03 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:57
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Johansen – Wennberg9:26
xG 0.12–0.82 (13%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef14:00
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton12:56
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard15:58
xG 0.16–0.72 (18%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron9:52
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Hornqvist11:08
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett6:22
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Downie5:31
xG 0.05–0.54 (8%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres12:00
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang14:51
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot10:16
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).