Thu, Feb 19, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 17 | 08 | 120 |
| WSH | 211 | 212 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:35WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 11:17WPGToby EnstromAssists: Andrew Ladd, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 13:07WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Mike Green, Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 15:47WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 13:33WSHTroy BrouwerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:26WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:29WSHKarl Alzner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:32WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07WPGTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47WPGChris Thorburn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:50WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:42WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik2:59
xG 0.20–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:04
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Frolik – Lowry2:45
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stafford – Frolik – Scheifele7:00
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers13:21
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot9:57
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba6:52
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky10:07
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr9:31
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov6:53
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson2:10
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson11:22
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen10:42
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:37
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).