Thu, Feb 19, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 213 | 24 | 528 |
| DAL | 010 | 114 | 115 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 3:38SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:14SJSAndrew DesjardinsGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 8:00DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 17:44DALErik ColeAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:55SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: James Sheppard · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–2
- P3 19:06SJSTommy WingelsENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:12DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:12SJSBrent Burns: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:42DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23DALRyan Garbutt: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:57SJSScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:29SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Sheppard – Nieto8:26
xG 0.53–0.42 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Hertl – Tierney8:04
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Wingels14:09
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Karlsson13:33
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic17:24
xG 0.94–0.62 (61%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Hannan – Irwin12:43
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon16:48
xG 0.26–1.17 (18%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Benn14:49
xG 1.87–0.78 (70%)attempts 28–14goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour3:03
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Ritchie2:00
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin3:58
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn12:25
xG 1.08–0.47 (69%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Daley – Demers2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:32
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).