Fri, Feb 20, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 06 | 06 | 124 |
| CAR | 212 | 08 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:55CAREric StaalPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jiri Tlusty · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:53TORBrandon KozunAssists: David Booth, Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:09CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:07TORPetter Granberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:56CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:50CARAndrej Nestrasil: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:46CARJohn-Michael Liles: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:59TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:26CARCam Ward: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Kadri – Panik9:39
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Booth – Holland – Kozun4:12
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Booth – Winnik – Kadri4:49
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Clarkson – Komarov10:42
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly16:52
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Robidas – Granberg7:24
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:26
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Staal12:09
xG 1.20–0.14 (89%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner5:34
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Rask5:59
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm4:50
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk13:37
xG 1.29–0.60 (68%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Liles – Gleason14:20
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore13:28
xG 0.10–0.32 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).