Fri, Feb 20, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 011 | 08 | 127 |
| STL | 03 | 48 | 14 | 515 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:48STLPetteri LindbohmAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:16STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:09STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 13:59STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 11:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:36STLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:34STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:44BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:07BOSDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:07STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:16BOSJordan Caron: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:16BOSJordan Caron: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:16STLPetteri Lindbohm: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:04STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:08BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:53STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:54STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith8:17
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:58
xG 0.28–0.21 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Campbell – Caron – Ferlin5:08
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Pastrnak4:23
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton10:28
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski14:29
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug10:10
xG 0.38–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:39
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves6:16
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin8:13
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:56
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole10:21
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Cole – Gunnarsson2:58
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Lindbohm10:48
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).