Fri, Feb 20, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 6, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 116 | 513 | 638 |
| CGY | 111 | 18 | 19 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50CGYMatt StajanAssists: Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 11:02CGYLance BoumaAssists: Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 15:08ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Corey Perry, Josh Manson · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 6:13ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:53ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Patrick Maroon, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:35ANAKyle PalmieriGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 14:45ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 18:10CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.26 xG5–3
- P3 18:59ANAHampus LindholmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:18ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:32ANAClayton Stoner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:49ANAClayton Stoner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:56CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:57ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:23ANAPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Maroon – Palmieri10:01
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Kesler – Perry – Smith-Pelly8:05
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Smith-Pelly3:37
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell9:38
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm16:49
xG 1.36–0.47 (74%)attempts 19–15goals 4–1
- Stoner – Manson17:20
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler13:20
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Colborne – Bollig6:42
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma12:41
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Glencross – Raymond – Granlund9:28
xG 0.09–0.49 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan11:04
xG 0.07–0.89 (8%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Diaz11:23
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
- Giordano – Brodie15:49
xG 0.25–0.63 (29%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell17:13
xG 0.35–1.25 (22%)attempts 14–25goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).