Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 07 | 118 | 01 | 0 | 232 |
| WSH | 14 | 010 | 17 | 06 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41NYITravis HamonicAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:19WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 14:26WSHEric FehrAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:12NYIRyan StromeAssists: Anders Lee, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 4. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 6. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:40NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:14NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:14WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Strome11:47
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee15:27
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Mouillierat6:44
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Nelson13:07
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:21
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 0–2
- Hickey – de Haan13:09
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic17:54
xG 0.41–0.99 (30%)attempts 15–30goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky15:21
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 26–19goals 1–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr10:39
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson7:20
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov13:23
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner20:36
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson17:19
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 22–19goals 0–1
- Green – Hillen12:55
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).