Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 116 | 09 | 01 | 334 |
| TOR | 110 | 19 | 111 | 13 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57TORLeo KomarovSHAssists: David Booth · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:31WPGJacob TroubaPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 19:10WPGMark ScheifelePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:07TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:05WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 3:57TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:47TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:58TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:55WPGMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:58WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:56TORKorbinian Holzer: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:21TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:31TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P2 16:56TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:56WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23TORDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:23WPGBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:55TORNazem Kadri: Charging2 min
- P3 16:55WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Frolik – Lowry8:24
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:30
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Chiarot5:55
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba8:14
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Stuart – Pardy2:01
xG 0.01–0.04 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Booth – Kadri2:26
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Kadri8:35
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:51
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Clarkson – Komarov9:24
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly12:55
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Holzer – Gardiner11:24
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Granberg7:02
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).