Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 012 | 09 | 132 |
| MTL | 213 | 05 | 16 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:03MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 14:05CBJNick FolignoAssists: Artem Anisimov, Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P3 19:10MTLTomas PlekanecENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:34CBJKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:51MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:02CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:02MTLJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:02CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:41MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:02CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:55MTLGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:31MTLChristian Thomas: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:31CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:16MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anisimov – Dano7:58
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Johansen – Wennberg10:23
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson10:03
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp3:21
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef15:17
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard14:49
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton13:36
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:26
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Bournival – Thomas5:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Weise – de la Rose9:21
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Eller – Sekac12:09
xG 0.15–0.77 (16%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu18:59
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Tinordi11:48
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban14:09
xG 0.15–1.37 (10%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).