Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 08 | 07 | 122 |
| OTT | 116 | 19 | 214 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:16OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:40OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Alex Chiasson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:03OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 12:09OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:52FLADave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:38OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:40FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:40FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:35FLAErik Gudbranson: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:27FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:01OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Jokinen – Barkov3:31
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Hayes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau3:52
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov8:09
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad6:22
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Gudbranson13:39
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Petrovic12:11
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:52
xG 0.59–1.14 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Turris – Stone11:09
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 2–1
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar13:05
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel7:33
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad8:39
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki9:57
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:06
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 3–1
- Methot – Ceci3:24
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).