Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 011 | 110 | 132 |
| NJD | 310 | 07 | 02 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Adam Larsson, Scott Gomez · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:05NJDAdam HenriqueGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 19:32NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 13:56CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Alexander Semin, John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:20CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:55CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:43NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:53CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:53NJDMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:53CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:29NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Staal
- P1 20:00Giveaway by Bernier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Nash4:03
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Nestrasil5:02
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Skinner3:18
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Nestrasil – Rask2:48
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk4:23
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Liles – Bellemore2:39
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Sekera – Jordan3:36
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Henrique9:34
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Ruutu8:50
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Zubrus – Gionta – Josefson9:14
xG 0.06–0.18 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac13:11
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson18:22
xG 0.96–0.42 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Harrold – Gelinas11:18
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill14:21
xG 0.54–0.78 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).