Sat, Feb 21, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 210 | 19 | 429 |
| STL | 09 | 05 | 29 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31PITBlake ComeauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:26PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:38PITBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 12:21PITBrandon SutterAssists: Blake Comeau, David Perron · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 14:33STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 18:38STLIan ColeAssists: Barret Jackman, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 3:04PITDerrick Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16STLVladimir Tarasenko: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:02STLIan Cole: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:32STLAlex Pietrangelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:32PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:22STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:22PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:22STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:22PITRobert Bortuzzo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:21STLVladimir Tarasenko: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau9:24
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Spaling3:30
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett5:44
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron13:23
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Pouliot8:39
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres14:59
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang18:45
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Stastny – Jaskin5:48
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:56
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin3:53
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Schwartz2:29
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole13:19
xG 0.75–0.22 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Lindbohm13:08
xG 0.46–0.52 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:13
xG 0.33–0.60 (35%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).