Sat, Feb 21, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 7, Dallas Stars 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 17 | 417 | 11 | 736 |
| DAL | 113 | 315 | 26 | 00 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42DALJamie BennAssists: Jordie Benn, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–1
- P1 16:57DETGustav NyquistAssists: Riley Sheahan, Alexey Marchenko · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:20DETPavel DatsyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 15:16DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:02DALCody EakinAssists: Trevor Daley, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 18:16DALErik ColeAssists: Jason Demers, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–4
- P3 0:56DETJakub KindlAssists: Luke Glendening, Tomas Jurco · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 1:41DETJakub KindlAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 4:29DALCurtis McKenzieAssists: Jordie Benn, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 10:37DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Erik Cole, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.26 xG4–6
- P3 12:47DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.17 xG5–6
- P3 18:12DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–6
- OT 0:36DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.06 xG7–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:46DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:30DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:19DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:45DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 13:41DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Nyquist – Sheahan7:26
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Pulkkinen7:37
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar15:06
xG 0.90–0.89 (50%)attempts 21–13goals 2–1
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Sheahan2:14
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko12:18
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Kindl – DeKeyser12:07
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 3–2
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:29
xG 0.56–1.18 (32%)attempts 16–23goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Garbutt6:38
xG 1.25–0.19 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Sceviour10:40
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Fiddler – McKenzie9:00
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 1–2
- Roussel – Eakin – Ritchie11:18
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn14:39
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Daley – Jokipakka13:13
xG 1.16–0.99 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 2–2
- Goligoski – Klingberg17:33
xG 0.36–0.94 (28%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).