Sun, Feb 22, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 29 | 08 | 223 |
| PHI | 18 | 112 | 18 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:34PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–2
- P2 5:23WSHTom WilsonAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 15:22WSHJoel WardAssists: Eric Fehr, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:47PHIMichael Del ZottoGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:37WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:30WSHMatt Niskanen: Kneeing2 min
- P2 1:29WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:00PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:18WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:18PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:18WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:42PHIMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:00PHIMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:02PHINick Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Chimera – Brouwer – Kuznetsov8:12
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr8:48
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson5:18
xG 0.15–0.45 (24%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson10:42
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Green – Schilling11:35
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson12:13
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner14:10
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Raffl9:02
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Schenn7:12
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare4:13
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Read – Couturier9:09
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – MacDonald10:59
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Del Zotto16:00
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz12:31
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).