Sun, Feb 22, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 011 | 18 | 135 |
| PIT | 18 | 18 | 310 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 19:33PITEvgeni MalkinGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 0:19PITPaul MartinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 3:53PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–4
- P3 9:06PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Zach Sill · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 12:23FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:19FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P1 14:51PITSimon Despres: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:37PITDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:41FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:04FLAAlexander Petrovic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:07PITMaxim Lapierre: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck9:08
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad10:05
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:18
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky6:56
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad12:38
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic10:18
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Campbell – Petrovic2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Spaling – Bennett9:16
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron9:12
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Downie – Sill7:32
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Despres15:01
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang15:33
xG 0.71–0.98 (42%)attempts 14–18goals 3–0
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot12:47
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).