Mon, Feb 23, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 211 | 111 | 05 | 1 | 338 |
| ANA | 07 | 03 | 314 | 01 | 2 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:54DETPavel DatsyukUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:50DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 9:17ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 11:27ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 12:57ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 16:09DETRiley SheahanAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 4. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 5. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:58ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:55DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:42ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:52DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:14DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:33ANAPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:53ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:35DETBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:51ANARyan Getzlaf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Weiss – Pulkkinen5:12
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening9:47
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Sheahan11:46
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar16:34
xG 0.30–0.65 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – DeKeyser10:23
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith2:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko9:47
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri3:55
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg15:05
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Etem – Rakell6:32
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Palmieri6:10
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm19:22
xG 0.88–0.35 (71%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Stoner – Manson10:49
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler12:01
xG 0.17–0.38 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).