Tue, Feb 24, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 0, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 08 | 06 | 021 |
| NYR | 010 | 09 | 110 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:00NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:35CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:39CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:39NYRJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:39CGYSean Monahan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan15:09
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Glencross – Colborne – Jooris11:55
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma11:31
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Ferland – Granlund – Poirier6:04
xG 0.10–0.44 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:05
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz10:16
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell19:51
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Lindberg – Miller6:39
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Hayes13:46
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider14:02
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin3:17
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:09
xG 0.63–0.16 (79%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Hunwick13:28
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:25
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).