Tue, Feb 24, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 38 | 19 | 523 |
| STL | 07 | 212 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:22MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:11MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:01STLDavid BackesAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:49MTLBrendan GallagherGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 16:38MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 17:45STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 15:47MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:34MTLP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:03STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:55MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 14:31STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31MTLMichael Bournival: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:40STLDmitrij Jaskin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Malhotra – Bournival – Thomas7:31
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:38
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Prust – Weise – de la Rose11:35
xG 0.63–0.79 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Eller – Galchenyuk13:23
xG 0.37–0.80 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban18:01
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 19–18goals 3–1
- Pateryn – Tinordi10:40
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu20:25
xG 0.53–1.01 (34%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Schwartz – Jaskin8:38
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Berglund11:10
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Steen – Stastny – Schwartz4:02
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Jaskin3:15
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole12:08
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Lindbohm14:26
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:02
xG 0.78–0.86 (47%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).