Tue, Feb 24, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 08 | 216 | 04 | 0 | 236 |
| CHI | 115 | 112 | 010 | 01 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:28CHIKris VersteegAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 12:23FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Brad Boyes, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:31FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Steven Kampfer · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Sharp scored
- 4. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:49FLAAlexander Petrovic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:10CHIBryan Bickell: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 11:58CHIMarian Hossa: Interference2 min
- P2 16:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 16:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:21CHIBrad Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:36CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:37CHIMichal Rozsival: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:49FLAShawn Thornton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 5:00CHIJonathan Toews: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Wilson7:12
xG 0.33–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov9:25
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Barkov2:32
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck10:04
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kampfer – Petrovic12:05
xG 0.66–0.80 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:03
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson14:59
xG 0.32–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad9:59
xG 0.87–0.02 (98%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Sharp – Versteeg8:42
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom10:20
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Bickell – Versteeg – Shaw2:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson17:33
xG 1.13–0.40 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Cumiskey11:28
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Rozsival – Keith2:27
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).