Tue, Feb 24, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 0, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 07 | 07 | 020 |
| LAK | 110 | 05 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24LAKJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:03DETDrew Miller: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 7:08LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:32LAKDwight King: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:54LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:53DETJonas Gustavsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:23LAKRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min
- P3 0:12LAKMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:14DETLuke Glendening: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:56LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar11:44
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Sheahan6:14
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening9:38
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen9:20
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smith – Marchenko12:43
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser13:38
xG 0.36–0.55 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:19
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:14
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Lewis9:16
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli6:47
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore7:54
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty14:49
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin14:19
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- McBain – McNabb11:19
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).