Wed, Feb 25, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 19 | 28 | 326 |
| NJD | 110 | 09 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Jordin Tootoo · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 19:46CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Joe Colborne, Josh Jooris · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 0:35CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:20CGYTJ BrodieENAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.45 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44NJDTravis Zajac: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:44CGYCurtis Glencross: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:25CGYRaphael Diaz: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:31NJDAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NJDJon Merrill: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:12CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
- P3 19:13CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:30
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Glencross – Colborne – Jooris9:48
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Backlund – Ferland – Poirier2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma8:43
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell18:35
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Engelland – Diaz9:16
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:40
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Ruutu10:15
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Gionta – Josefson8:46
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique11:21
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac12:40
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gelinas – Larsson2:50
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:40
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Harrold – Gelinas9:38
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).