Wed, Feb 25, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 112 | 16 | 426 |
| WSH | 16 | 05 | 213 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, David Perron · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:33PITBrandon SutterSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 19:51WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:16PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 4:09WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 7:12PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
- P3 16:26WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 8:13WSHMichael Latta: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:13WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:13PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:13PITBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:47PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:02PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:52PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P2 0:34WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:44WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:25WSHCameron Schilling: Interference2 min
- P2 7:12WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P2 9:29PITPaul Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:42WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:42PITRob Scuderi: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:42WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:55WSHCameron Schilling: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:02PITBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:22PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau7:35
xG 1.00–0.60 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling5:45
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Bennett4:40
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett2:29
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres8:15
xG 0.94–0.62 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Martin – Letang9:21
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Martin – Ehrhoff2:02
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr7:28
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Latta – Wilson2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson2:37
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky6:39
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schilling9:09
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner8:58
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson11:11
xG 0.21–1.04 (17%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).