Wed, Feb 25, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 113 | 112 | 334 |
| ANA | 010 | 08 | 07 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57OTTErik CondraGWGAssists: Eric Gryba, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:23OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–0
- P3 19:53OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.47 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:51OTTAlex Chiasson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:39ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:30ANAKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:50ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36ANAJiri Sekac: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:58OTTKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P3 9:52OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:52ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:46
xG 1.15–0.28 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar8:51
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel7:23
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone11:31
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Borowiecki10:05
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:37
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci2:31
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg4:36
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri6:37
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac3:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Etem – Rakell4:00
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Manson11:49
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Brewer – Fowler13:51
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:58
xG 0.53–0.94 (36%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).