Thu, Feb 26, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 13 | 112 | 116 | 331 |
| BUF | 16 | 15 | 413 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07BUFTorrey MitchellAssists: Matt Moulson, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 14:09VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Nick Bonino, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:42VANJannik HansenAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:59BUFChris StewartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 4:46BUFAndrej MeszarosUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 7:27VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:43BUFTorrey MitchellGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 18:28BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Chris Stewart, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 19:58BUFBrian GiontaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (1)
- P1 0:27VANYannick Weber: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Dorsett – Vey12:36
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian13:27
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Matthias – Bonino12:06
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins10:58
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber17:51
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Stanton – Clendening14:50
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Biega – Sbisa14:05
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Mitchell14:47
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
- Stewart – Foligno – Flynn17:57
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 9–22goals 2–1
- Ellis – Hodgson – Deslauriers6:48
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Dalpe – Varone – Larsson11:40
xG 0.18–0.59 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Bogosian15:45
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Meszaros – Pysyk16:12
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Weber – Ristolainen18:44
xG 0.29–0.72 (28%)attempts 7–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).