Thu, Feb 26, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 313 | 06 | 28 | 527 |
| CBJ | 19 | 012 | 16 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Andrei Markov, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 2:43CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: David Savard, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 4:25MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: David Desharnais · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 14:36MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 5:33MTLJacob de la RoseAssists: Brandon Prust, P.K. Subban · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 7:53CBJMarko DanoAssists: Artem Anisimov, David Savard · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:43MTLJacob de la RoseENUnassisted · Slap, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:59MTLDale Weise: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:33CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:04CBJScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – de la Rose3:22
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:55
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Bournival5:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Prust – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose6:16
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:03
xG 1.17–0.23 (83%)attempts 18–12goals 4–0
- Gilbert – Tinordi3:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Tinordi9:15
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anisimov – Dano3:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Dano2:59
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg3:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Wennberg2:46
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wisniewski8:49
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Leopold – Goloubef9:24
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef6:55
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).