Thu, Feb 26, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 016 | 015 | 218 | 249 |
| TOR | 17 | 12 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:33TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 1:22TORDion PhaneufPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 11:10PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 14:27PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.72 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:21PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:12TORTyler Bozak: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:14PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43TORStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P2 14:13TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07TORJoffrey Lupul: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:39PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:39TORPeter Holland: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:39TORPeter Holland: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:53TOROlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:54PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Giroux – Voracek3:29
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl6:52
xG 0.40–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Schenn7:38
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare3:50
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz9:09
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Del Zotto12:38
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald8:17
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSill – Holland – Kozun6:12
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:22
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 6–17goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Booth – Komarov7:37
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Panik12:52
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly11:25
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Robidas – Gardiner9:54
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer10:49
xG 0.20–0.98 (17%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).