Thu, Feb 26, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 111 | 09 | 05 | 2 | 229 |
| WPG | 011 | 011 | 16 | 03 | 1 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:11STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 3:14WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. WPG Drew Stafford stopped
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 6. STL Alexander Steen scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:02STLPetteri Lindbohm: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:07WPGEric O'Dell: Holding2 min
- P3 19:03STLDavid Backes: Illegal check to head2 min
- OT 2:03WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:12WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:12WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:12STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:12STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Berglund – Jaskin4:17
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:45
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Jaskin4:23
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie13:31
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Lindbohm17:11
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Butler – Pietrangelo2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jackman – Butler13:08
xG 0.28–0.78 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Tlusty – Scheifele14:53
xG 1.25–0.31 (80%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik17:04
xG 0.85–0.41 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Thorburn – O'Dell – Lowry10:40
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba14:02
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers16:01
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Harrison – Byfuglien12:05
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).