Thu, Feb 26, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 1, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 016 | 16 | 128 |
| LAK | 011 | 013 | 011 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:40OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:32LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:18OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:26OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:48LAKJamie McBain: Holding2 min
- P2 6:16LAKJamie McBain: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:18OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:03OTTMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:28
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Legwand – Greening – Chiasson5:22
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone10:02
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar11:10
xG 0.34–0.86 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci9:25
xG 0.75–0.64 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:27
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:03
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli10:49
xG 1.35–0.55 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar11:21
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Williams – Stoll – Lewis9:45
xG 0.12–0.53 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore6:58
xG 0.13–0.56 (20%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty17:07
xG 1.04–0.77 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- McBain – McNabb9:33
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb3:33
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).