Fri, Feb 27, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 014 | 010 | 028 |
| CAR | 19 | 116 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:21CARBrett BellemoreGWGAssists: Victor Rask, Andrej Nestrasil · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 10:15CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Elias Lindholm, Riley Nash · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 19:49CARNathan GerbeENAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.65 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:41WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:27WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:20CARBrad Malone: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06CARAlexander Semin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:10CARBrett Bellemore: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:10WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Kuznetsov – Wilson3:22
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson7:15
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Burakovsky2:35
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky2:59
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson12:59
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Orpik – Green2:13
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen9:43
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nestrasil – Rask11:06
xG 1.21–0.14 (90%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm9:29
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Staal12:34
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone7:50
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk17:30
xG 0.99–0.87 (53%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
- Gleason – Jordan11:41
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Liles – Bellemore9:59
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).