Fri, Feb 27, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 15 | 07 | 222 |
| ANA | 011 | 012 | 49 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Robyn Regehr, Matt Greene · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 10:39LAKBrayden McNabbAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 4:37ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 6:07ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jiri Sekac · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:21ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:36ANACorey PerryENAssists: Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.55 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:55ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:05LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Brown – Lewis2:28
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli12:04
xG 0.80–0.74 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore9:03
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar11:53
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty23:18
xG 1.13–0.62 (64%)attempts 28–11goals 1–1
- Sekera – McNabb2:40
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Greene – McNabb9:42
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestEtem – Rakell – Sekac12:47
xG 1.06–0.30 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:51
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Jackman – Maroon – Wagner8:45
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri15:23
xG 0.59–1.11 (34%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Manson13:50
xG 0.94–0.09 (92%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Stoner – Fowler2:30
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler12:50
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).